Tuesday, April 25, 2017

So You Want to Make a WordPress Site?

I'm a backend and operations developer by trade. I spend most of my days working with NoSQL databases and automating infrastructure. I have basically zero skill at making websites or doing any sort of web design. So when I decided to create a web service as a side project, I naturally looked for the easiest approach possible. That brought me to WordPress, a platform I know a bit about but never worked with at any length.

And several weeks of hilarity ensued.

Some highlights:

1. Plugins

Holy Christmas is it annoying dealing with plugins. I didn't even need that many too. Just support for multiple languages and paid memberships. My goal was to avoid having a mess of dependencies that end up draining the app's performance (it's all on one server).

The annoying thing is that even the more popular plugins are not terribly well documented. You end up breaking part of your app after changing the config and then find you have to dig through forums for half-answers. Some plugins offer support if you pay for a PRO version, but even then you can end up waiting days for answers or being referred to a forum post from 2009.

2. Backups

I found out the hard way the importance of backups early on when a config change with the SSL plugin borked my site completely. I am using Amazon Web Services for hosting with a WordPress AMI. My backup strategy had just been to take an image of the server once a day. It worked well enough, and with my load balancer and R53 settings it was only a couple of minutes of downtime to relaunch on a new instance if needed. There are some plugins available as well for backups such as Duplicator, but it was also a pain in the ass to set up.

3. Contractors

I ran into an annoying bug with two language plugins I needed to make the site function in English and Japanese. Rather than fight with it myself I decided to put out an ad on Craigslist and see if a more experienced web developer couldn't solve it for me. The first ad I put on Craigslist Tokyo did not get much response - only about 3 replies, none worth pursuing. I then put an ad on Craigslist San Francisco (which was a pain in the ass to do from Tokyo since they require verification with an American phone number, so had to hack around that shit) and in a day I proceeded to get over 100 responses.

How do you sift through 100 emails for a minor WordPress job? I don't have time to thoroughly vet and interview these people. It tempts your not-so-nice instincts. I knew I didn't want to deal with someone who couldn't speak English, so I was tempted to just delete all the "weird" sounding names. My better angels prevailed (I applied the golden rule; Japanese people might think my name is weird, so, you know) and I did actually click on every response in my inbox. I quickly deleted dozens upon finding emails that were incoherent, unrelated to my ad, sent by middlemen, or just otherwise creepy / shady in other ways.

I narrowed it down to 10 that met three specific preferences: 1. It was a single person instead of a team. 2. They had included links to their previous work. 3. The email itself was short, professional, and didn't have too many typos.

Of the 10 I responded to, 5 never got back to me. 1 insisted I call him on the phone. I told him that I always do Google Hangouts because I like to look into the other person's eyes while I ask them some simple technical questions. He wasn't crazy about it but I felt justified given my experiences with contractors. He did the video call. I asked him what SSH is (I did some custom PHP work on this app so the contractor had to be prepared to mess around in a shell session). He started explaining SSL instead. I told him that gently and he tried again, clearly demonstrating he had no idea. I thanked him for his time. He sent three more passive aggressive emails over the following days.

Of the four remaining, three ended up wasting my time. One guy interviewed well, so I gave him access to the git repo and admin console. He messed around for two days then said he had no idea what to do. The other two washouts did the same but were faster about it. The last dude ended up solving the problem in about an hour. I kept him on to do more design work and bug fixes. Pretty cool guy.

Also, I deleted the ad days ago but I am still getting inquiry emails. Some people email multiple times too. I now sympathize a bit with employers that don't send a reply to rejected candidates. (some of whom also demand an explanation!)

tl;dr - Hiring contractors is a pain and it may be faster to just solve the issue yourself.


WordPress really isn't so bad. If you're building a site from scratch it can cut a lot of the headache. Just know what you're getting into and plan carefully. I know for certain that if my app makes any money, I'll be migrating away from it. Would love to hire a developer full-time and maybe use RDS for the data layer since it simplifies backups.

Sunday, April 16, 2017

Musical Interlude: Five 'Blue' Songs

1. Rhapsody in Blue - George Gershwin

To this day one of my favorite compositions. A brilliant example of modern storytelling through song. Simple, evocative melodies combined with powerful orchestrations in the form of a classic piano concerto - it just works so well. Endlessly enjoyable and always makes me a bit nostalgic for New York, my home town.

2. Blue Train - John Coltrane

I played clarinet and saxophone up through college. As a former jazz man Coltrane of course was a big inspiration. He wasn't just a great soloist; he was also a great writer and arranger. Blue Train, the title track, was written by him. I loved playing this song because of the double time sections on top of a fairly simple blues progression. Lots of fun for improvisation. That whole album is great thanks in no small part to Coltrane's creativity and the other very talented musicians he had with him (Paul Chambers on bass, I believe).

3. Blue - Yoko Kano

Cowboy Bebop is one of those animes for which I am unapologetic fangirl. I'll acknowledge it has some flaws, but music is not one of them. From opening theme, "Tank," to ending credits music, "Real Folk Blues," every episode of that show has brilliant original songs. "Blue," is one of the most powerful. The children's chorus really gives it a big boost, as Patrick Bateman would say.

4. Blue Moon - Frank Sinatra

I love Sinatra. I mean who doesn't? Blue Moon is an old standard but Sinatra really did I think the iconic version of it here. It has just the right blend of comfy jazziness and melancholy. This song practically made Fallout: New Vegas for me (well, this and Big Iron). I still love sniping death claws with the anti material rifle while this song is bumping.

5. The Beautiful Blue Danube - Johann Strauss II

Strauss is, of course, the undisputed waltz master. The Blue Danube is easily the best known, though it isn't my personal favorite of his. I always preferred the melody of Viennese Blood. Emperor Waltz is also amazing. Yet the Blue Danube endures I think because it is just so well-structured and memorable. I find myself listening to it frequently on plane trips and long train rides. It always puts my mind at ease and makes me want to do a waltz class with wifey.

Honorable Mentions

Blue Velvet - Bobby Vinton
Kind of Blue - Miles Davis (whole album)
Blue Skies - Ella Fitzgerald
Don't Fear the Reaper - Blue Oyster Cult (lol cowbells)
Blue Moon - The Marcells (another popular version)

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Startup Opportunity: The YouTube Advertiser Meltdown

So YouTube is having some trouble with advertisers of late

Many channels are seeing their revenues plummet as big companies pull their ads out of fear they will be shown in more controversial videos. I have spent the last few months exploring some of these more extreme channels and I sympathize with companies that don't want their products featured in videos about "race realism" or how illegal immigrants are ruining America. Strictly speaking it isn't censorship when Youtube removes a channel for being politically too extreme. Still, we should ask ourselves how comfortable we are with large corporations essentially setting the terms of acceptable political discourse by pressuring media platforms into banning unpopular opinions.

The problem now is more widespread than just a few companies focusing on a few political extremists. Several of the biggest media companies are now pulling ads. H3H3 did a video recently suggesting that this issue is not just about companies protecting their brand, but really more about the old media trying to undermine Google and internet advertising generally (the original video was taken down recently due to mistake in their reporting, but the above link covers their general thesis).

Regardless of the advertising companies' endgame Youtube's response has been, shall we say, unfortunate. The LGBT restricted mode fiasco did not do them any favors. It speaks to their tricky position. Some brands may indeed not want to associate with LGBT content. However putting LGBT videos in their own restricted little box is discriminatory.

So how do we resolve this dilemma? Some argue that content creators should just try to find other outlets. There is the extreme anti-copyright view that all art and content should be free anyway, and creators should make money through other means. I do not agree with this. Talented Youtubers should be able to earn a living from their work I think. But how do we allow them to get compensated for attracting viewers with quality work while giving companies control over their brands?

I see two ways forward for the internet and its creative class:

1. A smarter advertising-based model.

2. A model that does not rely on advertising.

Approach #1 is likely much easier. Youtube need not take a sledgehammer to the problem by blocking controversial channels about right wing politics, veganism, or LGBT issues. As the Guardian article shows that's only going to piss people off and lead to inane debates about censorship (omg free speech! omg they're a private company they can do whatever! omg!). The thing is, alt-right, vegan, and LGBT videos, get lots of views, and likely there are many advertisers that want those eyeballs. Dating sites, gardening tools, gun companies, for example. Give companies more targeted ways of shilling their products exactly where they want, and the advertising revenue game can continue as before.

Approach #2 is more disruptive. The idea here is to give content consumers an easy way to directly compensate content creators. I like the idea of cutting out the corporate advertiser 3rd party since advertisers tend to influence creators in unfortunate ways. The problem with this approach is really more logistical. How do you make it effortless for consumers? Patreon is a good start. It still blocks "hate speech," and is suboptimal in some other ways. But I am glad they exist.

How do we make it even easier for consumers? Cable TV and Netflix are a good standard. I pay a monthly fee, some of it goes back to creators. But what about for Youtube, or blogs, or other content sources? Perhaps what we need is a browser plugin with a wallet that allows for microtransactions. It could charge a user a penny for every page load on a creator's blog. With sufficient adoption you could have thousands of creators being directly compensated by hundreds of thousands of consumers with no advertising middleman. I'm sure others could envision far better ideas than that.

So which is right, approach #1 or #2? Perhaps the answer is:

And that's why I titled this post "Startup Opportunity." Ultimately I don't think approach #2 can work by itself. Advertising is a fundamental type of human interaction. I make something. I want to sell it. I have to tell people about it. Advertising as a concept is not going away; there's just too much money in it. However if a startup can find a way to do it smarter and / or help creators not need it, I think they could make a lot of money.

I have some ideas for both approaches but I'm kind of busy with my other project at the moment...

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Random Thoughts III

The Politically Naive Alt-Right

I found it really interesting how quick so many in the Alt Right were to jump ship on Trump after his missile strikes on Syria. I too was disappointed because it struck me as rash and contrary to his espoused philosophy of reigning in America as the world’s policeman. Yet I was not at all surprised. Just as every president before him Trump will have to compromise occasionally. He’s playing the long game and cannot be some perfectly pure incarnation of paleoconservative nationalism. To see so many of his supporters become so outraged really speaks to how green these folks are about politics.

This is an area where the Left is much stronger than the New Right. How many leftists jumped ship on Obama when he betrayed them over and over and over again? Very few. They stood by their guy to the bitter end because they knew ultimately he was pushing their vision forward however imperfectly. The New Right would do well to learn from that. Agendas have to be implemented through imperfect people via imperfect systems. Don't be a hypocrite. Criticize policies that go against your principles, but when they are carried out by leaders you support, focus on the policy. Don't jump ship on the guy the minute realpolitik comes in to play and he fails a purity test. Any movement that abandons its leaders the minute they have to make some compromise is doomed to failure.

Review: Ghost in the Shell

As a huge fan of the series I decided to subject myself to this. It turned out to be not terrible, though my expectations are quite low for any PG-13 Hollywood cross-cultural adaptation. The visuals at least were quite strong. I actually like Scarlet Johansson too. She has this sort of breathy, curvy, effortless sex appeal that I really dig (see the bar scene with Bruce Banner in Age of Ultron for a simple example). Unfortunately I don’t think she was a good fit for the role of the Major. She came across as more confused than stoic. The script didn’t do her any favors either. Ghost in the Shell doesn’t work well as an origin story. They should have done what the recent Dredd movie did and just give us a day in the life of Kusanagi and her team. Also it needed to be bloodier and have more real nudity, both for fan service purposes and to draw more visual and thematic contrasts the way the original movie did. Did we not learn from Deadpool that R-rated superhero movies can work spectacularly?

Why Female Superheroes Wear Sexy Costumes

The goal of a superhero costume is to connote power. Humans perceive attractive, sexy women as having more power. A typical man is more intimidated by the cute barista at Starbucks than Hillary Clinton. Call it male privilege. Women respond similarly, though obviously not for the same reasons. The average woman is more jealous of a lingerie model than a female prime minister. Women more so than men know the power of sexiness. A sexy woman in the right place can bring down heads of state and change the course of a nation’s history. Subconsciously we all understand this. That’s the real reason Wonder Woman has to show a good bit of cleavage.

Al Pacino Speech from Any Given Sunday

Political movements need to keep in mind 3:44 – 3:54. Good response to the purity testing issue.

Thoughts on MGTOW

I have read a good deal from anti-feminists and men's rights activists lately. One subset are the 'Men Going Their Own Way' movement. They are a group of men who refuse to have relationships with women largely because of unfair divorce laws and the belief that modern western women are corrupted. I find the movement interesting because it relates to what I have written about marriage previously and the problem of men not really having an incentive to pursue it. I sympathize with these men, especially those who have been through the hell of the family court system. I think MGTOW is a predictable response to problems with western culture. I also think it is perfectly logical as a temporary identity to allow a man to focus on self-improvement. I think where I would disagree is with those who think of MGTOW as a political solution.

The idea that men as a group will refuse marriage and then things will get so bad that the laws are changed and women come crawling back - this is an absurd fantasy. Large groups of men refusing marriage is not going to fix all that is unfair with gender relations. All it will do is create a vacuum that will be filled by more desperate men, foreigners, and eventually harsher government action. You can't fix a broken society by sitting on your hands and hoping things just get sorted out once everyone is frustrated enough. For MGTOW guys who just want to opt out and don't care about society, I really have nothing to say. But to those who think it is a viable movement for improving society, I would suggest they really examine that idea.

Ayn Rand Quote

The uncontested absurdities of today are the accepted slogans of tomorrow. They come to be accepted by degrees, by precedent, by implication, by erosion, by default, by dint of constant pressure on one side and constant retreat on the other – until the day when they are suddenly declared to be the country’s official ideology.

Review: Nier Automata

I really enjoyed this game. It has a great flow. The combat is really simple yet engrossing. I love the 'Bullet Hell' style combat as well as the hack and slash mechanics. The character designs are quite stylish and fun. The setting and story concept is also really cool. Yoko Taro's Drag-on Dragoon franchise is delightfully convoluted and audacious. Even when parts of it don't work you give it credit for its ambition. The Nier story makes for a great mix of sci-fi and fantasy. Automata leans more heavily toward the former. I was surprised how invested I felt in a story about androids and robots with no humans to be found. It is actually quite powerful. My biggest criticism is that I wanted more - more development of the antagonists and the Android world. The music is also fantastic. I'd give it 9/10 overall.

Keiyaku Kekkon Update

Finally ready to start user testing for the site. Going to recruit some folks this week to click through it in English and Japanese. Still some UI bugs to work out. It has been surprisingly difficult working out all the little kinks with menus and profiles and user messaging. I have developed a great respect for web developers. Making a really slick, nice website is not something that just happens. There are so many little choices you have to get right. Could still use help if any people are interested in the project.

Tyler Durden Speech

The most important thing he says here is that this is an age of spiritual war. He is right, particularly for those of us living comfortably in western first world nations. Our grandfathers fought in great wars on battlefields, in trenches, out in the wilderness clawing civilization out of a hostile untamed natural world. They braved natural disasters, disease, and all manner of physical suffering to build the foundations of our society, then generations later, risked swift, violent death on foreign battlefields to preserve our birthright. Now today we are called to protect and preserve that legacy, only the war now is not against nature or a foreign tyrant. Now the war is everywhere and nowhere. It is in the minds of our countrymen. It is in our cellphones. It is at the water cooler in our offices. It is in our classrooms. It is on our televisions. It is in popular music. It is in our churches. It is in the halls of congress. What nature and foreign dictators could not destroy, we may happily destroy ourselves.

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Project Update

Keiyaku Kekkon

That is what I am calling it.

The Contract Marriage service.

Those are literally just the Japanese words for "Contract Marriage."

Functionality is pretty straightforward: You make a profile and a contract. The contract spells out the sort of marriage you want - specific roles, responsibilities, and expectations for the husband and wife. You can 'wink' at other users or send a 'proposal'. Recipients of proposals can then accept, reject, or counter. Kind of makes a game / business negotiation of it. Could be fun.

The site has been surprisingly fun to build. I went with a Wordpress server to start because it seemed like the easiest thing. There are a couple of dating site themes that are easy to play with too.

The tricky part so far has been the user interface (UI) and the design. I had to get help with some Craigslist contractors for those. I found a really good web designer to help with pictures and getting rid of that cookie-cutter Wordpress look. Also had some help with a few features that required some PHP hacking. I feel the same way about PHP as I do the washlet in a Japanese toilet. I respect its usefulness but prefer not to be in a situation where I need it.

The basic app works but needs A LOT of polish and testing. I bought a domain and an SSL cert and I'm also putting together a YouTube ad. With luck the thing should be ready for an open Alpha period in about a week. It'll be totally free to use during that time as the goal there is just to see the site work properly and get feedback. After that there will be a Beta period with reduced price, and then a full launch with regular pricing.

I don't anticipate it being all that popular, but it has at least been fun to make. This is the first website I've built in a long time. It's a great change of pace from my day job down in the trenches with Cassandra databases.

I tend to get distracted a lot on side projects so I am glad that I could see this one through. It hasn't even been that expensive to bootstrap on my own either. Maybe I can find a business guy interested in becoming a cofounder and get him to focus on finding users.

Saturday, April 1, 2017

The Allure of Esoteric Knowledge

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it" ~ Aristotle

The last year has been quite the intellectual journey.

Since Trump's election I have been steeped in the world of alternative media. I have spent a good deal of time on Breitbart and /r/the_donald. I have spoken with race realists on YouTube. I have explored the 'Manosphere' and learned about the MGTOW, MRA, and PUA movements. I have read the arguments for white nationalism on sites like American Renaissance.

There is a phrase for entering this world: Taking the Red Pill.

The concept of the red pill of course comes from The Matrix. It represents Neo's desire to know the truth about the world, no matter how horrifying it may be. It is a powerful symbol that plays on an under-appreciated cognitive bias; the desire to know 'secrets.'

Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/610/

We all want to feel special. We like to feel as though we understand secret, complex realities that most other people do not. In that sense I think the red pill is brilliant marketing. It has sucked a lot of alienated young people (mostly men) into various internet communities. Many are echo chambers that feed on people's resentment and help them rationalize their own dysfunctional behavior. Some red pill sites and thinkers are quite good though, such as Stefan Molyneux. While I disagree with many of his ideas he is clearly very intelligent and an excellent speaker. I support a few of the better personalities on Patreon and even had drinks with Black Pigeon Speaks one time.

Ultimately I think the red pill is a predictable reaction to the inequity wrought by technological change, mass immigration, globalism, and a disingenuous mainstream media. The narrative could only be centrally controlled for so long in the internet era. The continued effort to try to control the narrative has led to everything becoming politicized. Whether it is late night comedy, the NFL, the Oscars, a public school classroom, a Disney movie - there's always an agenda that's being pushed, and people are sick of it. This is also a big part of why Donald Trump won the last election.

I have found myself sympathetic to a number of red pill ideas. I agreed with race realist Tara McCarthy about the reality of genetic differences between races and the failure of the welfare state to help black America. As far as feminism and the MRA crowd, I had a somewhat similar experience to Cassie Jaye. There is more to criticize in contemporary feminism than I had realized. Furthermore, as I have written previously on this blog, I think Trump is right to try to secure the borders.

Having my own family I think has made me more socially conservative. When you're young and single it's easy to think, "Live and let live! Who cares what the guy next door is doing? It doesn't affect me!" Then you have kids and you start to take issue with stepping over used condoms and syringes when walking to the park. I suppose by moving to Tokyo I am not very different from the wealthy leftists who push social liberalism but then move to the richest, safest, whitest part of town possible.

Like them I greatly prefer living in an environment of high social trust. Living in Japan has been enlightening in that regard. Unmanned vegetable stands, six year-olds walking to school alone, internet cafes with free drinks and videogames, people saving their seats in clubs by leaving their smartphones on a table - no way could you do any of that back in NYC. Cultural homogeneity has its advantages, and it is far easier to maintain when you also have racial homogeneity. It has made me sympathetic to the Japanese preference for strict immigration laws to maintain essentially an ethno-state. Once you condone that right for one race, you have to wonder why it shouldn't apply to others.

Digging into all this alt-right / red pill stuff can feel like going down a rabbit hole. The important thing is to maintain one's ability to rationally and dispassionately assess ideas, be they "Red Pill" or "Blue Pill." You take everything with a grain of salt. You maintain your skepticism and demand evidence for any claim. It's also vital to distinguish between facts and preferences. Wherever you ultimately land philosophically, you want to at least be able to say you arrived there using reason and adhering to well-defined principles. (Certainly do not abandon the concept of principles)

Monday, March 27, 2017

Side Project

I have been thinking a lot about the whole "Contract Marriage" concept from that Japanese drama Nigehaji. I believe the concept might have some legs as a side business.

The basic concept in the show is that two people agree on a marriage contract at the start of their relationship. This way expectations are clear up front and a productive courtship can begin. I think a marriage-focused dating site that operates from this premise could find an audience.

Of course marriage-focused dating sites are not a new thing. I looked around and found some Japanese Konkatsu sites that are somewhat similar. Most are just expensive matchmaking services that try to get a whole lot of information about your preferences and concerns. They are not bad but none of them just let users cut out the middle man and match up with one another based on desired marriage lifestyle.

Most dating sites either focus on some small community or are too open-ended. Sites like Match, Plenty of Fish, and EHarmony all try to match people based on personality and interests. While this definitely works for some people I do not think it is the ideal way to find a marriage partner. What happens too often in relationships is you spend years getting to know someone in hopes of teasing out their desired marriage lifestyle, all while hoping they are on the same timeline as you for things like kids and career. A Contract Marriage site could let users get all that info at the start.

In some ways the idea is similar to Seeking Arrangement. Seeking Arrangement has millions of users. The site is controversial because "Sugar Daddy" dating is, to many, not very different from prostitution. Whatever your feelings about that, I think the success of it stems from the benefit of having expectations defined up front. The women know exactly how much money to expect, and the men know what they will get from the women in return. There is no ambiguity unlike most online dating sites.

Contract Marriage could be a less shady version of that. Users can create their ideal marriage agreement and find someone who likes what they are offering. It solves the problem I described in my earlier post about men not feeling an incentive to pursue marriage because they don't see any benefit. "What is in it for me?" a man might ask. Contract Marriage answers that question explicitly. Men can see in writing exactly what benefits their future wife will provide in terms of financial contribution, companionship, homemaking, etc. The same is true for female users. A woman seeking marriage can spell out exactly what she wants from her future husband. That could be a more traditional breadwinner husband to allow her to be a stay-at-home mom, a supportive partner to help her pursue a career, or something in between.

The idea has been in my head for a few weeks now and I've already laid some of the ground work. I'm going to take the next few weeks to try to hack something out and see if I can find an audience. I know absolutely zero about business so I may need to seek help or a co-founder or something.

Lots of other software developers have side projects. I figure why not give it a shot.

Friday, March 24, 2017



これまで長年の間、日本の出生率は人口置換水準以下(女性一人当り2.1人以下の出生数)である。 移民入国者数の少なさと相まって、この数字は高齢化社会を招いた。日本の中央値年齢は47歳で、世界二位の高さである。程なく平均的日本人像は、50歳超えになるだろう。

これがなぜ問題なのか? さて、ある人は、「それは問題ではない」と議論する。またある人は、「日本は比較的小さい国だから、その人口密度は限界に達していて、出生率の減少は理にかなっている」と言うだろう。多くの人は、日本(あるいは全世界すらも)は単に人口過多であると信じている。 






それでは、日本の出生率の解決策はどのようなことか? 答えは、何をこの問題の原因と特定するかによる。日本人に質問すると断然、最もよく聞くスケープゴート(言い逃れ)は、経済だ。生涯保証雇用が過去の遺物となったことで、人々は結婚して子供を持つことがただ高くつくように感じている。政府は子持ち家庭に補助金を出して援助しようと試みているが、あまり助けにはなっていない。



しかしながら、この問題は、女性やフェミニズムに主に起因するものとは思わない。確かに、日本の女性は選り好みしがちではある。今人気のドラマ ”東京タラレバ娘”は、結婚しようと奮闘する30代女性たちの話であることから、その性向を少し実地踏査している。それでも、大多数の日本女性は結婚したいと望み、かなり高い割合で主婦になりたいとも望んでいる。現在の事態に関しては、男女ともに責められるべきだと思う。私の観察では、日本における男女の社交の世界は非常に独特だ。デートや女性にまるで関心がない多くの男性が存在する。彼らは「草食系」として知られ、専門的には草食動物を意味するが、単に女性に対しての積極性の欠如を言い表している。この種の男性にとって、それは女性嫌悪でも、政治的表明でもない。彼らは文字どおり、女の子にどう声をかけたらいいかわからないだけなのだ。従って、より多くの結婚を促進するベストな方法は、より多くの縁組を可能にするような、社会的交流を切り開く方法を見つけることだと思う。ある種の箱の外思考( 異なる方向からの新しい解決法)が必要とされている。



Tuesday, March 21, 2017

A Bad Argument

Very occasionally I still catch The Daily Show. It is a shadow of its former self of course, with John Stewart gone. However I did see the interview Trevor Noah did with Tomi Lahren. It did not do much to raise my opinion of either of them, but made for a nice diversion. Lahren, though clearly quite young and not the greatest thinker, held her own for the most part. She seemed like a clear rising star for the Fox News crowd.

So I was surprised to learn that she was being suspended from her position at The Blaze, Glenn Beck's media outlet. I caught a tweet about it and it turns out it was because of her appearance on The View. She stated that she was pro-choice during her interview there.

Now, that in and of itself is enough for any conservative outlet to distance themselves from her since a strong majority of republicans are pro-life. However when I actually watched the clip and heard her reason for being pro-choice, I immediately knew that Glenn Beck was right to suspend her.

Lahren claimed to be pro-choice because she supports small government. That was her reason; "Stay out of my guns and stay out of my body." This is an impressively stupid argument. The abortion issue is not about scope of government. It is about the definition of life. To a pro-lifer she is basically saying that stopping the murder of babies is not a legitimate function of government.

If she were smart she would have just taken the standard liberal position and said, "I do not believe an undeveloped fetus is equivalent to a baby." She could have put it nicely with some qualifiers. Instead she tried to be clever and make a "conservative," argument for abortion. This sort of reasoning is risky because it can anger people in your ideological camp. I have heard intelligent liberal arguments against Obamacare, and conservative arguments for gay marriage. Bill Maher has done this well as a lefty attacking PC culture. For an emotionally charged issue like abortion, it is not a good idea to try to oppose your own side with their own philosophy. It is doubly bad when your argument is laughably deficient.

Lahren's argument goes beyond being simply bad and is actually offensive. She is betraying a cornerstone tenet of conservative ideology and simultaneously attacking conservatives for not agreeing with her. She's essentially saying, "If you guys were REAL conservatives, you would be pro-choice." You need some serious intellectual gravitas to try something like that. Lahren is out of her depth. Beck made a very understandable decision. This whole drama is a teachable moment on the risks of bad arguments.

And no, her suspension is not "censorship." Her employer, The Blaze, has every right to reprimand someone they think does not represent them well. Organizations have a right to set and enforce standards. If a Catholic school just so happens to only want to hire Catholic teachers, that is their right. If Glenn Beck's wants his organization to support an official position on abortion, that is his right too.

As for the abortion issue I of course have my own view but do not feel inclined to discuss it in this writing. Another time perhaps.

Friday, March 17, 2017

Marriage, Japan, and Manga

I recently started watching the Japanese drama Tokyo Tarareba Musume. It is a show about three women in their 30's who are desperate to get married before the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. The show is what some in the alt-right would call “red-pilled” in that it shows how hard it is for women to quickly find a suitable husband after partying away their 20’s. The show’s protagonist, Rinko, suffers a number of indignities as she learns that she has hit “The Wall,” and cannot attract high status men as easily as she once could.

When Rinko is in her early 20’s, her moderately successful male coworker, Hayasaka, asks her to start a relationship with him. She turns him down quickly because he is not terribly stylish and she figures she’ll find a much better man eventually. In the show’s present, the 30-something Rinko still works with Hayasaka, who has now been promoted to the level of Producer and is still single. Rinko is still a relatively low level script writer with a career going nowhere fast. Rinko now dreams of Hayasaka asking her to marry him and start a family. Instead Hayasaka takes Rinko out to dinner only to ask her advice on how he can start a relationship with a much younger girl who works in the same office. Rinko is of course crushed and briefly considers suicide.

While it is a bitter pill the show is still basically a comedy. I could not help but compare it to Nigehaji which I recently reviewed. Both shows I think have good social messages because they present marriage in a generally positive light and encourage women to be realistic. The best way to see this is to contrast the attitudes of the two female protagonists.

Rinko is a typical spoiled city girl who greatly overestimates her own talent and attractiveness. For this reason she dismisses perfectly decent men for trivial reasons. In fact we see her dismiss a handsome bar owner later in the series because he asks her to change her hairstyle. Her attitude toward men is basically, “How is this guy not perfect? Where is there a flaw I can use to disqualify him?” Her resulting loneliness is her own fault. We may even experience some schadenfreude when men now choose to casually dismiss her the same way she dismissed them.

Mikuri from Nigehaji has the opposite attitude. When she works for Hiramasa as a maid she has numerous reasons to dismiss him as a potential mate. He is nerdy, antisocial, cold, kind of skinny, and generally unmanly. Yet instead she comes to see all of his good qualities – his earnestness, his intelligence, his suppressed desire to love and be loved. Hiramasa is reluctant to start a relationship, even suggesting Mikuri find her own boyfriend at one point saying it is her “free choice.” Mikuri is annoyed with this, eventually throwing the words back in his face and making him decide to either start a romantic relationship with her or not. Mikuri did not want to be free. She wanted Hiramasa to claim her and she convinced him to do it with a lot of patience and work. While Rinko never considers for a moment that maybe she isn’t entitled to better than her respectable coworker, Mikuri works hard to prove her worth to her geeky employer.

In Tarareba, Rinko eventually does start a relationship with her coworker Hayasaka. While a lot of men might not love this (Yay! The girl who dissed me ten years ago is now ready to let me wife her up! Lucky me!) I think since this is a story written by and for women, it is a reasonable development. Rinko has been humbled by her experiences and is rewarded for her self-knowledge. Ultimately it is meant to advise women on the danger of being overly picky. Not all women can expect their Hayasaka to still be waiting for them.

Hayasaka and Hiramasa are representative of typical Japanese guys. Neither is rich or especially handsome, but they have ordinary virtues – maturity, diligence, and kindness. In a healthy society guys like this have no trouble getting married. So why are Japanese men struggling? Sure, the ladies might be pickier but by and large they want to get married. Childless after 30 is still frowned upon in Japan, even if it is becoming more common. So while fastidiousness is an issue on the ladies’ side, I think another big factor is lack of incentives for men.

The character of Kazami in Nigehaji has a great quote about why men ought to avoid marriage: Nakute komaranai mono wazawaza kau? It means, “Why go out of your way to buy something you can live without?” He’s basically saying that men do not actually need women, especially not in the age of casual sex and abundant internet porn. He perceives marriage as nothing more than a loss of autonomy. And that’s not even considering the legal risks which are even worse in the western world. Women have limited fertility. Marriage grants them children, a provider, and higher social status, in most cases. What is in it for men?

Both Nigehaji and Tarareba put some effort into answering this question, particularly the former. Keep in mind that both are stories written by women. In Nigehaji we see not only the practical benefits of having a housewife (spotless house, healthy home-cooked meals, etc.) but also the love and companionship that invigorates Hiramasa’s life. Furthermore the role of husband is presented as something respectable and honorable. Both Rinko and Mikuri (and I’d argue most Japanese women) are seeking a leader more than an equal partner. They want the man whose babies they produce and whose last name they take to be someone they admire. I’d wager most men want to feel that from their wives – gratitude, respect, admiration. Contrast that with American TV, where often the role of husband and father is presented in a very negative fashion.

While in theory there may be good reasons for a man to get married, it ultimately comes down to finding the right partner. With the existing social systems that is a tall order. One thing that did occur to me though is that Nigehaji’s idea of a ‘Contract Marriage’ could be a good solution. The contract forces Mikuri and Hiramasa to be up front about their expectations for their married life together. Both the man and woman know exactly what they are offering and exactly what they are getting. This might be a good paradigm in a society like Japan where people by and large still want marriage. I think if more Japanese guys could see the benefits clearly enumerated in writing we would see more of them giving it a shot.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Random Thoughts II

On Jews

I have spoken with a few Alt-Right people about the "Jewish Question." I don't buy into the conspiracy theories but I think there is something we can observe about tribalism.

As Thomas Sowell pointed out there are many kinds of “Jews” throughout history. What we are talking about is really just the phenomena of a small minority enjoying disproportionate success and influence within a country. It matters not whether they are an immigrant minority, an ethnic minority, a religious minority, or any other type. In all cases they outperform the majority population, winning influence in the professions, the legal system, the schools, the media, etc.

Is this OK? Is this fair? Is this to be stopped? My immediate thought is that it is a problem of degree. When you have this small minority having slightly more success, it isn't a big deal. After all, the Jewish guy with the corner store making money is only successful because people willingly trade with him. It becomes a problem when they start openly screwing over the natives – start manipulating the government in their favor and controlling entertainment and news media. Some argue this is happening in America today. The fear is that you end up with a situation where a minority becomes able to tyrannize a majority.

What is preferable? Tyranny by a majority or tyranny by a minority? Ideally you get neither, but if I had to pick I would say tyranny by a majority is preferable. Fewer victims.

Cheating at Video games

I shake my head when I read about hackers ruining online multiplayer in FPS games, or editing config files to get unlimited secret keys in an RPG. I feel like these people are missing the point of video games. A video game is not a problem that you try to solve; it's recreation. The fact that you have to earn those secret keys - that you have to practice to be able to aim well - these are parts of the game. I understand the hacker mentality of trying to find exploits as it is relevant to my work. The discovery can be very satisfying. But then proceeding to play the hacked game with zero challenge knowing that it signifies nothing about your own skill? I don’t get it. It’s like playing solitaire but arranging the cards in order before you start to ensure victory. What is the point?

An Interesting Plot for Wonder Woman

I'm a big comic fan and I love Wonder Woman. Someone challenged me to come up with an interesting plot for her since she doesn't have as many classic stories as Superman and Batman. Here goes:

Diana (Wonder Woman) and the Amazons have lived for thousands of years. They have seen mankind evolve technologically. In the near future they become worried about the latest inventions - human augmentation and A.I. Diana learns from the Moirai that humanity is approaching its Great Filter. Without divine intervention, humanity is destined to destroy itself in the next decade or so. Diana and the Amazons are told they must leave Earth and find a new home. However Diana does not want to abandon humanity and her friends in the Justice League. She considers the qualification in the prophecy ("without divine intervention") and realizes that humanity can be saved if she can convince the Olympian gods to rule humanity as benevolent overlords. All of this would be revealed very gradually with the other Justice League heroes eventually opposing her. I like the dilemma though; slavery vs. death. Which is worse? I wouldn't have a cop out third way either. Probably I'd write both endings.

Japanese Cultural Chauvinism

I saw a funny program on TV the other day. It featured various masters of Japanese culture – an expert sushi chef, a renowned Taiko drummer, etc. They are each sent to different parts of the world where non-Japanese people are practicing the same craft. In every case, the non-Japanese are ‘doing it wrong’. To twist the knife, they force the Japanese master to pretend to be an amateur and get instruction from these people. For example we saw the Taiko drum master forced to practice with a particularly incompetent all women group in the American mid-west. It ended nicely though when he revealed himself and taught the women how to properly play Japanese drums.

What struck me about it though was the inherent chauvinism. Americans in particular likely do not care about recreating elements of foreign cultures correctly. Americans have such a mongrel culture that they would probably dispute the notion of ‘correctness’ and insist that traditions are meant to constantly evolve (effectively meaning that there are no traditions). But obviously the Japanese do not see things this way. To them there absolutely is a right way to make sushi, a right way to perform Taiko, etc.

Jason Bourne

I saw the most recent movie and was not at all impressed. What irks me about the franchise is that they never dig into the most interesting aspect of Bourne's character: David Webb. David Webb, the man who became Jason Bourne before losing his memory, was actually a brave and compelling individual. He volunteered for the Treadstone program. He was an educated and talented man willing to make difficult moral choices. He was a patriot who, as Tommy Lee Jones says, saved lives with the choices he made. “Jason Bourne” is just a guy with Amnesia. As a result, he experiences his own history out of context and ends up standing in judgment of the programs that trained him, ultimately choosing to expose and destroy them.

David Webb would not have wanted this. Jason Bourne adopted a far more conventional moral position. “The government was doing bad stuff. It doesn't matter if that bad stuff was for a good reason. It was bad. Therefore I have to stop them.” Because of the consequences of Bourne's actions, I completely sympathize with the assassin who goes after him in this most recent movie. Bourne is a naive traitor. Webb is actually an interesting character. It strikes me that if Bourne now "remembers everything," would he not experience remorse for betraying his country and fellow operatives? We should have at least seen him wrestle with that more throughout the series.

Collective Identity

I read Ayn Rand when I was in high school. I used to be a hardcore libertarian. Individualism appealed to me. I still recommend people read her stuff because she's thought-provoking. It's just now that I have traveled a lot and learned more about human evolution I realize the flaws in her ideology. Tribalism is the foil of Individualism. Individualism only works if everyone practices it. In a multi-ethnic society, the groups that do not act as a tribe are disadvantaged in relation to those who do. This leads to the somewhat paradoxical conclusion that ethnically homogeneous societies have a greater opportunity for individualism (though even there individualism could ultimately disrupt and undermine the society).

I am wary of all forms of collectivism. I agree with much of Rand's essay on racism. It is indeed often a refuge for mediocrities, and the very idea of taking pride in something one did not choose seems silly. Being proud of being black / white is much like being proud of having curly hair. It is absurd. Perhaps maybe the issue is just the specific word pride. I have friends who are proud to be Japanese. However I think their pride is more focused on their culture and not their ethnicity. Pride in culture is not necessarily absurd, since culture is something in which one actively participates. Yet race is a fundamental part of Japanese identity. So maybe there is an appreciation for the Japanese race and a pride in cultural achievements.

I'm tying myself in knots...This needs its own essay.

An Obvious Double Standard - Futurama Amazons

One of the funniest episodes of Futurama involves a group of Amazons who capture the team. There are a number of gender-based jokes in that episode, but perhaps the most memorable is the "death by snu-snu," bit. Here the Amazons intend to kill their male prisoners by endlessly having sex with them. It isn't just threatened either; we see them actually begin carrying this out in the show as different women go in and out of the rooms. We are literally watching men being raped to death. And it's hilarious. Now try switching the genders. And just like that, you can see why gender equality is such a hard thing to actually believe let alone achieve.

Only God Forgives

Saw this movie a few nights ago. It was...interesting. I understand why it was divisive. It is not easy to make sense of it right away. On its face it is a simple story of revenge and loyalty. It is just directed in such an odd way. Lots of explicit atmosphere building – long shots with characters framed deliberately by light in specific ways. Lots of spooky music and random interludes with a character singing karaoke.

Overall I enjoyed it. I dig the vibe and I loved the character of Chang, the all powerful cop. One thing I enjoyed was the scene where Change fought Julian, Ryan Gosling’s character. It was nice seeing Julian get his ass handed to him. It was a great change of pace from what we usually see with foreigners in Asia in the movies. Whether it is Karate Kid or Tokyo Drift, there are a thousand movies with Americans going to Asia and mastering some ancient local skill in a single training montage. It was nice to see the Thai cop just completely wipe the floor with the dude.

On Revenge

There are four levels.

1. Direct and Immediate: You walk up to the target, punch him in the face, and scream at him for what he did. He knows what he did wrong.

2. Direct and Patient: You wait a long time before getting back at them in some creative way. The target knows you did it and knows why.

3. Indirect and Patient: You wait a long time and arrange for some bad thing to happen to the target. The target does not know you are involved. The target does not even know that they are being punished. From their perspective they are just having bad luck. You smile to yourself in secret.

4. Invisible: The target does not even experience anything bad. You just secretly arrange things so that they miss out on some great opportunity. The target’s life is worse off than they will ever know. You can smile at them easily now.

Beauty and the Beast Gay Controversy

Had a conversation with a Japanese guy about this online. I told him that I did not really see the big deal about Beauty and the Beast having a gay character. He said that a kids' movie in Japan would not do that. Playing Devil's Advocate a bit I asked him, "Well why is it OK to show heterosexual couples but not homosexual ones? If the issue is sexuality shouldn't we avoid letting children see either?" He responded simply, "Sure, but heterosexuality is the norm." This was actually somewhat convincing to me. I think you could argue that children don't need to be exposed to every type of sexual minority. The argument that "gay people are out there in the real world, so kids have to know about it!" Doesn't really work for me. Dendrophiliacs and serial killers are real too. Doesn't mean kids need to be exposed to them. Childhood is supposed to be innocent. (and no, I'm not equating gays with serial killers; just pointing out the flaw in the argument)

The idea of a cultural norm is interesting to me. I think we often don't realize that there is a cost when we change norms. It isn't always an obvious objective good. Whenever we normalize something, be it miscegenation, homosexuality, single motherhood, or transgenderism - there are inevitably unintended consequences. Unlimited tolerance isn't free. Society pays for it in all sorts of ways. For that reason I respect Russia's decision to bar children from seeing the new Beauty and the Beast, even if I don't personally agree with it. They are choosing their own norms.

My real problem with making a character gay actually pertains to something I wrote in my last "Random Thoughts" post: I don't like when adaptations make these sort of changes to classic stories. I prefer more faithful adaptations. I want to experience the history and unique culture of classical literature; I don't want it to just try to cater to modern sensibilities. It reminds me of this quote from Thoreau:

"Every generation laughs at the old fashions but follows religiously the new."

Wednesday, March 8, 2017












逃げ恥は今時の日本の恋愛模様をうまく表現している。人口の減少など、日本の家庭生活を皮肉るものが多い中、逃げ恥は私たちにポジティブな印象を吹き込んでくれるようだった。不自然な設定が本物として表現されている、TrainwreckYou’re the Worstのような西洋のザ・ラブコメをたくさんみてきた私には、自然とお互いに優しくなれる人々の関係を表現してる逃げ恥というドラマが、目新しく感じられた。


Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Review: Nigeru Wa Haji Da Ga Yaku Ni Tatsu

Television can do more than simply entertain us. It can inspire. This is the difference between a good show and a great one. By this standard, Nigeru wa haji da ga Yaku ni Tatsu (逃げるは恥だが役に立つ, affectionately known as 'Nigehaji') is a great show.

The setup is straightforward as ever. Mikuri is an enthusiastic unemployed young woman who ends up working as a maid for a nerdy programmer named Hiramasa. Mikuri is good at her job and Hiramasa comes to depend on her. When Mikuri's parents decide to move far away, the soon to be homeless Mikuri asks Hiramasa if she can live with him under a 'Contract Marriage.' The two would marry and present themselves publicly as a couple, but in reality their relationship would remain platonic with Mikuri continuing to work as a maid and receive a salary.

You can see where this goes. Mikuri over time becomes smitten with the mature and diligent Hiramasa. Unfortunately, Hiramasa is what is known as a 'Soshokukei Danshi', or 'herbivore' man. In Japan this basically refers to very nerdy guys who have no romantic interest in women. Thus Mikuri's affections are generally not returned without a lot of prodding on her part.

The pacing of the show is superb, at least until the last episode that is. The gradual evolution of Hiramasa and Mikuri's relationship feels slow at first but ultimately it makes each milestone more satisfying. The story takes the necessary time to develop the characters – to make the romance feel natural. Men watching the show understand why Hiramasa comes to care deeply for Mikuri. She is a thoughtful, bright, competent young woman who makes his life better. Women watching can understand why Mikuri falls for Hiramasa. He is hardworking, smart, patient, and most importantly, willing to grow and break out of his shell thanks to his experience with Mikuri. Nigehaji demonstrates a simple and ideal marriage: a man and woman working together to make a great home for one another.

This is why the show I think struck such a cord with Japanese society that news channels reported on mass depression when the series ended. It is just such a down to Earth story. Hiramasa, though smart and mature, is not some one in a million supergenius. Mikuri, though attractive, is not a Victoria’s Secret model. These are two ordinary people whose ordinary virtues – respect, kindness, hard work, conscientiousness – ultimately win them happiness in each other’s arms. Unlike much of what we see on TV, this truly is something we can all aspire to achieve in our own lives.

It helps that the lead performances are quite strong. Yui Aragaki shows great range and spirit as Mikuri. Gen Hoshino's portrayal of Hiramasa is also solid. He works as a great 'straight man' playing off of the energy of other characters. The only thing that felt lacking is that I wish the show had done more to flesh out his dedicated bachelor lifestyle.

It also helps that the show is just really funny. Every episode features some kind of parody or reference to another popular Japanese show. My favorite was the Neon Genesis spoof in episode four. Much of the humor comes from Hiramasa’s coworkers who offer some snappy comedic dialogue. Arata Furuta is absolutely hilarious as an eccentric senior engineer. Nigehaji includes a number of side stories that add context to Mikuri and Hiramasa’s relationship.

Most of these subplots are just icing on the cake. There is a running motif about an allegedly gay coworker that provides some humor and ends sweetly. There is the will-they-won’t-they relationship between the much older Yuri, Mikuri’s aunt, and cool guy Kazami, Hiramasa’s coworker. Their relationship feels sort of like fangirl shipping. Still, it has emotional weight and is well-developed. Finally there is Yassan, Mikuri’s housewife friend who ends up divorcing her cheating husband. Yassan’s story arch I believe is meant to serve as a foil – a demonstration of how things can go wrong in a traditional marriage. On that level it works. Personally I think it could have used more screen time as we never get the husband’s perspective. At the very least, they do not present Yassan’s decision to make her daughter grow up without a father as an easy one.

My biggest criticism of the show concerns its ending. I did not love the last episode or the last scene of the episode before it. Without spoiling too much I will just say it concerns Mikuri having a sudden change of heart about her relationship with Hiramasa. The two renegotiate their contract quite drastically and Mikuri ends up struggling to balance outside work and home duties. This period is perhaps necessary for her character as she ultimately comes to understand herself better and ends up appreciating Hiramasa even more. The problem is that they only had about half of an episode to process this huge change in their relationship dynamic. After 10 episodes of very deliberate, deliciously paced romance, this section felt rushed and awkward.

Ultimately the show ends in just as sappy and upbeat a way as you would expect. The last ten minutes of the series are charming and fun, if not exactly how I would have liked to see things end. More importantly, it does not ruin all the good that was built up in all the prior episodes. Great television is about showing, not telling. What Nigehaji shows is an enchanting and believable love story. It portrays marriage and gender roles in a way that shows respect to both men and women, with enough humor to keep the former entertained, and enough drama to keep the latter engaged. It is also a great show for non-Japanese looking for a light and accessible comedy.

Nigehaji is picturesque representation of contemporary Japanese romance. Given the declining population, there is much reason for cynicism about family life in Japan. However Nigehaji with its infectious optimism is a breath of fresh air when compared to western romantic comedies like Trainwreck or You're the Worst. Having watched hundreds of western shows where ugliness is presented as “being real,” it is a welcome change to see a story where people are just generally decent to one another, with no ironic post-modern snear behind it.

Saturday, March 4, 2017

Thoughts on Japan's Demographic Crisis

As of last year the population of Japan is officially shrinking.

For many years now Japan has had a birthrate well below replacement level (~2.1 babies per female). Combined with low immigration this has led to an aging society. Japan’s median age is 47, the second highest in the world. Before long the average Japanese person will be over 50.

Why is this a problem? Well, some argue that it isn’t. Some would say that since Japan is a relatively small country, its population density has hit a limit, and it makes sense for birthrates to decline. Many people believe Japan (or even the whole world) is simply overpopulated.

I do not buy this. Japan ranks 40th in population density behind India. India’s birthrate is well above replacement level. If a nation with a higher population density than Japan can sustain above replacement level fertility, it follows that Japan’s problem is likely not population density but rather culture.

To be fair, Japan is quite mountainous, so the amount of usable land might make India a poor comparison. However I think the basic point stands when we think more generally about population density. Consider for example that you could quadruple Japan’s population and the density would be about half as much as Queens, NY. I used to live there and I can tell you it isn’t that bad; plenty of nice parks, suburbs, and open space. With its level of technology Japan could likely sustain a population at least an order of magnitude larger in size. I do not agree that the country is simply overpopulated.

I also do not agree that the planet generally is overpopulated, and even if I did I would not argue that the best solution is having fewer Japanese people. Japanese are some of the most productive, peaceful, high IQ humans on Earth. We need more of them not fewer. If we really wanted to curb population growth we should be focusing on the developing world. Certainly we need to prioritize taking care of the environment, switching to clean energy, and combating global warming. But I disagree that the most effective or moral solution is encouraging low fertility in wealthier countries. (or any countries)

Japan’s birthrate is a serious problem too. The lower number of young workers has created a public pension liability that simply cannot be honored. Benefits are going to have to be slashed dramatically and people will be forced to retire much later. The economic consequences of an aging society have been clear since Japan’s crash in the late 1980’s. They have had sluggish growth for decades.

I would go further and argue that low fertility signifies cultural malaise and degeneracy. It suggests that people have become unable to plan and shape a future for themselves. It suggests that family has become devalued. To me this is dangerous because families are the cornerstone of a free and civil society. A society made up solely of individuals is easily manipulated by demogogues and charlatans. Family gives a person something to which they are more loyal than the state. Having a family forces you to think across generations and consider the long-term consequences of decisions. A good argument could be made for restricting voting to people with families.

So what is the solution to Japan’s birthrate? I think the answer depends on what we identify as the cause of the problem. By far the most common scapegoat when I ask Japanese people is the economy. With lifetime guaranteed employment a thing of the past, people feel like getting married and having kids is just too expensive. The government has tried to help by offering subsidies to families with children, but this has not helped much.

I am very skeptical of the economic explanation for many reasons. It seems to me that if poor women throughout the third world can raise five kids without trouble, wealthy Japanese people should be able have a few of their own. Furthermore, the sharp decline in the birthrate actually began in the 1970’s, right in the heart of Japan’s massive growth and economic miracle. So even when the economy was booming people were electing to have fewer kids.

I suspect Japan was a victim of its success in some ways. People thought the boom would last forever so many deferred starting families and got accustomed to an unrealistic standard of living. The culture changed in a way that made people simply value marriage and children less. More women working and going to college was likely another big factor.

I do not think the problem is mainly due to women or feminism though. It's true, Japanese women can be picky. The current popular drama "Tokyo Tarareba Musume" explores this a bit as it is a story about women in their 30's struggling to get married. Still, the vast majority of Japanese women want to get married, and a high percentage want to be housewives too. I think both men and women are to blame for the current state of affairs. My observation is that the world of men and women is just so different in Japan. There are lots of men who simply do not care about dating and women. They are known as “Soshokukei,” which technically means ‘herbivore’ but really just refers to their lack of assertiveness with women. It isn’t misogyny or any sort of political statement for these guys either; they literally just have no idea how to even talk to a girl. Therefore I think the best way to encourage more marriage is to find a way to hack social interactions to enable more coupling. Some outside of the box thinking is needed.

In the short term Japan might have to boost immigration at least a little bit to help meet demand for workers. They have done this in the past by focusing on skilled Asian immigrants for specific industries, such as female Filipino nurses to help care for the aging population. More of this sort of thing is not a bad idea. Filipino, Vietnamese, and other east Asian immigrants from poorer countries are generally eager to assimilate and are very hard workers. The females are often sought for marriage and eventually take Japanese names. Thus it is the least culturally disruptive form of immigration to encourage. Along with targeted immigration boosts, the government is definitely going to have to cut spending and reign in entitlements.

In the long term, if the birthrate doesn’t improve, hopefully automation will be the ultimate fix. With whole industries run by robots, Japan simply won’t need as many workers. Men can work less and more women can stay home with their kids (‘mom’ is one of the few jobs we should not replace with a robot). It’s not a terrible vision of the future.

Friday, February 24, 2017

Random Thoughts I

Stealing this format from Thomas Sowell. Just some things floating around my mind.


When you look at human history, would you say that the good guys usually win? The way we are taught history in school, you might think this is true. We get this nice neat narrative centered around our country. Our nation's evil deeds are painted over. Even the most left-wing and biased of teachers only dig at the surface level sins. Kids don't learn real history. When we really study history, we learn that it isn't about good guys and bad guys. It is really just about power and opportunity. Reading The Man in the High Castle enforced this idea in my mind. Had the Nazis and the Japanese won most certainly their version of history would have made them out to be heroes. Who are the good guys of the world today?

X-Men Apocalypse

I watched this the other day and had to laugh at the fact that Magneto is shown to be more heroic than Superman was in Man of Steel. Without even thinking, he exposes his identity to save a random man in a factory. This leads to the loss of his wife and daughter. It was an instinctive and tragic decision. Clark, by contrast, stands by and watches his father die in a tornado. What exactly was he risking? A handful of strangers might see him do something miraculous. So what? It was his father. His mother's husband. It still amazes me that he just watched him die in such an unnecessary fashion. The original Superman movie did it much better by having the father die of a heart attack, which taught Clark humility and forced him to realize that he couldn't save everyone (worked as decent foreshadowing too).

In any event it was a pretty terrible movie (as most comic book films are). Just very silly. I have no idea how there was even a fight at the end. Why Apocalypse and Magneto did not just flatten all of the heroes at the start is a mystery to me.

Homogeneous Societies

One thing I like about Japan, and indeed most homogeneous societies, is that you see people of the same ethnicity doing all of the different jobs. Japanese people dominate the upper echelons of wealth and power. Japanese people own the media companies. Japanese people pick up the garbage. Japanese people work at 7/11. Japanese people are doctors, scientists, cashiers, waiters, construction workers – all of it. Back in NYC there were many jobs you almost never saw white people doing. Some races have disproportionate representation in high level fields like law, politics, business, and media. Other races are just understood to be the ones to do lower level work. Ethnic income inequality inevitably leads to ethnic strife. No easy solutions to that.

Aldous Huxley

“The surest way to work up a crusade in favor of some good cause is to promise people they will have a chance of maltreating someone. To be able to destroy with good conscience, to be able to behave badly and call your bad behavior 'righteous indignation' – this is the height of psychological luxury, the most delicious of moral treats.”

Another Thought about Superman

I always liked to think that the destruction of Krypton was not an accident. Instead I assume that Krypton's destruction was carried out by some entity that feared the Kryptonians. It makes sense. The Kryptonians were an advanced space-faring race. They would have eventually figured out that yellow sunlight grants them godlike powers. In fact Jor-El already knew this as he told Clark about it. What would have stopped the Kryptonians from simply moving to a planet with a yellow sun. Imagine a world with billions of Supermen. Unstoppable.


We are literally down to one design. All smart phones are completely identical. They are all just miniature tablets and there is not even that much variety in size anymore. I miss when we had flip phones, physical keyboards, and other variations. Sad!

H. L. Mencken

“For all complex problems there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”

Impression of CNN

I was back in the United States for a few weeks and watched a few dozen blips of CNN. Not more than a few minutes spread out over several days. On about 90% of those blips, the content was critical of president Trump. This is statistically significant in terms of overall journalistic integrity. Now, some might say, “Well it's Trump's fault for doing so many bad things!” And I suppose then the relative lack of critical coverage of Barack Obama was because he always did “good things.”

So for all of you people claiming the media is biased, you have your answer. Obama did good things and Trump does bad things. Once he starts being good he will get better coverage.

I for one am completely mollified.

On Modern Adaptations

I recall reading an interview with Elizabeth Olsen wherein she expressed gratitude for her costume in the film Avengers: Age of Ultron. She played Scarlet Witch, a character known in the comics for her somewhat revealing attire. To paraphrase Olsen, she basically said she was glad that the producers updated her costume for modern audiences, as the traditional comic one was too sexy.

It isn’t just sexy clothing either. It is things like changing a character’s race, making a supporting character gay, or making a villain more sympathetic. In general I think that updating a story to suit modern sensibilities defeats the purpose of telling that story to begin with. If we’re just going to change every peace of fiction from the past to make it properly match contemporary cultural moors, then how are we to ever learn anything from them? Every work of art just then slavishly reflects back our own society. By this logic we should rewrite all of Shakespeare’s plays in modern English and take out all of the ‘problematic’ bits about women and minorities.

Ugh, someone is probably already doing that…

Monday, February 20, 2017

Opposing Trump the Right Way

Though I have said some sympathetic things about the man, I am not a Trump supporter.

During the election the only argument I would have considered for voting for him would have been the idea that he was the lesser of two evils. Had I voted, it would have been for a third party since I was a resident of New York and there was no contest for the electoral votes.

The only issue where I think Trump is mostly right is immigration. Nations need secure borders, and relying on an underclass of millions of illegal migrants for cheap labor is socially and economically unsustainable.

However on most other issues I oppose Trump. His economic policies, a grab bag of protectionist Keynesian palliatives, seem unlikely to restore America's middle class. His criticism of the media, while justified, has been done in a divisive, hyperbolic, and irresponsible way (Biased as they may be, the media are not the 'enemy of the American people'). His disbelief in climate change could prove disastrous to the environment in the long term. His opposition to net neutrality could threaten the very idea of a fair and open internet. His desire to 'destroy' ISIS along with his unquestioning support of Israel and Putin suggest he will get the United States into even more mischief in the Middle East. His support for the use of torture I find despicable.

So it goes without saying that I want Trump to have effective opposition. I want all of his bad ideas to be discredited and discarded. However it has to be done the right way. The Left and the democrats spent 18 months trying to disqualify Trump by branding him a racist, misogynist, xenophobe. This is a common tactic. Instead of debating, end the conversation with an accusation. However they underestimated both Trump's shamelessness and just how unlikeable Hillary Clinton was. So Trump was not disqualified; he was elected president and inaugurated. So now they have no choice but to fight his ideas and policies. Yet some still wish to avoid this debate and are seeking other ways to beat Trump.

The 'Deep State' is not the right way.

To those unfamiliar with the term, the Deep State refers to the ever rent-seeking Washington bureaucratic establishment. It includes all of the big government agencies including the State Department, the CIA, the NSA, and myriad others. The downfall of Michael Flynn was a demonstration of the Deep State's power. By selectively disclosing bits of phone conversations from high level officials, intelligence and law enforcement agencies can politically assassinate people at will. This is a common tactic in police states.

We should make a distinction here between these sorts of leaks and whistle blowing. The latter refers to the revelation of illegal or at least unconscionable behavior. It would apply to someone like Edward Snowden or Deep Throat. The revelation about Flynn's conversations with a Russian official do not really count. Flynn did nothing illegal (though you could make a weak argument for a Logan Act violation). In any event, he is not under investigation and has not been charged with anything.

So we're not talking about whistle blowing or forcing our representatives to follow the law. What we are actually talking about is empowering unelected bureaucrats to undermine the democratically elected president and his administration. The argument from people like Evan Mcmullin is that they are actually protecting democracy by working against it. And even better from the perspective of the mainstream media: McMullin is a conservative. So now the Deep State's behavior can be wrapped in a flag of patriotism and bipartisanship.

This is a bad road to go down and the Left needs to realize it. We do not want to set this precedent. Once we explicitly empower anonymous unaccountable government operatives to overrule the people's elected representatives, the logical result is tyranny. It is very dangerous to think that this is something that can only happen one time because Trump is so unique. Trump is just the beta test. He was elected because the people wanted change. There are a lot of people in government that do not want change. Do progressives honestly think that this could not happen to a leftist democrat president? What if Bernie Sanders is elected in 2020? Remember, it is conservatives that are supposedly attacking Trump. What if some republican intelligence operatives decided to sabotage Bernie's administration in 2020? You know, because patriotism and the constitution and all that.

We must not let this become the new normal. Through a mess of leaked memos, manufactured scandals, special prosecutors, congressional hearings, senate committees, federal investigations, damaging headlines, and forced resignations - the Deep State has the power to cripple any administration at any time. It is death by a thousand paper cuts. The only thing that stops them is a longstanding gentleman's agreement across generations and presidential administrations. That and the basic understanding that once the intelligence sector and bureaucrats take power, there is no nice way to put that toothpaste back in the tube. If we look at history we see that a common solution is a military coup with a strongman ruthless enough to keep the rank and file in line.

So lets keep opposing Trump - online, in debates with friends, in classrooms, at protests, on television, in state legislatures, in appeals courts, in the halls of congress, and most importantly, in the battlefield of ideas. But let us not throw out the baby with the bathwater and blow up the concept of representative government just because a powerful minority are still bitter about an election loss. If we do not oppose Trump the right way we will be left with a permanently dysfunctional banana republic of a country. Even on his worst days Trump is far better than that.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Reality Calls Reaction

Just finished the interview. I think it went well. It went a lot faster than I thought it would and I regret not asking her more questions. She seems like a pleasant enough girl. While I still think it is accurate to describe her as racist, she does not strike me as hateful.

Racism comes in many forms. There is the more hateful and aggressive type that is focused on putting down "inferior" races. I see a lot of this on Amren with all of their articles on minority crime. While I agree that we need to be open and honest about disproportionate rates of crime, the community has struck me as quite negative, with lots of commenters piling on ethnic insults. Maybe this is cathartic for them.

I am more sympathetic to the more positive type of racism - that which is focused on appreciation of one's own people and their achievements. For example black nationalists who focus on appreciating black artistic achievements and strengthening black families instead of attacking white people. Tara struck me as being more in this camp. She has a genuine love of western civilization. In the interview she denied being a supremacist (some of her statements in other interviews seem to contradict this) and said that she has respect for all different cultures.

Japanese people are generally like this. They love their own people and culture above and beyond all others without apology. However you will rarely hear them say anything negative about other societies. There are numerous TV shows in Japan about foreigners and rarely are they critical of them. (though their comedy is not always politically correct...)

So I can respect Tara's point of view, particularly since it does seem to be informed by actually reading about genetics. While I could argue that her interpretation of the science is inaccurate, it would be wrong to call someone like her ignorant. She isn't ignorant. She has a difference in values. And what's great is that even with that we found a lot of common ground on various social and political issues.

For progressives (and most conservatives) the accusation, "You're racist!" is a way to end a conversation. For me it is the start of one. I intend to write a more thorough piece on racism in the near future.